Claude Allègre

"The increase in the CO₂ content of the atmosphere is an observed fact and mankind is most certainly responsible. In the long term, this increase will without doubt become harmful, but its exact role in the climate is less clear. Various parameters appear more important than CO₂. Consider the water cycle and formation of various types of clouds, and the complex effects of industrial or agricultural dust. Or fluctuations of the intensity of the solar radiation on annual and century scale, which seem better correlated with heating effects than the variations of CO₂ content."
Climat: la prévention, oui, la peur, non, L'Express, May 2006

Falando claro e muito convicto, Allègre, declarou hoje na Academia das Ciências em Lisboa que há grandes desafios para a humanidade hoje, mais certos e urgentes que o tema genérico das alterações climáticas [que, no seu ponto de vista, não é um problema antropogénico]: a Demografia, por exemplo, em breve seremos nove milhões a precisar de alimento e de água.
A sua tese: o ser humano tem nas mãos grandes desafios: a Adaptação a novas realidades. A solução: aceitar um progresso positivo com novas maneiras de produzir e gerir a Energia, os Resíduos, a Água, etc. Um pouco como os ciclos Geológicos, pensar os sistemas circulares de reciclagem de tudo o que possa ser reciclado, a energia, a água...
Na gestão do tema da biodiversidade, a solução para o desaparecimento da população de ursos polares a norte do Canadá, não está nas medidas extemporâneas como a redução da velocidade nas autoestradas [França], mas sim na luta para a proibição efectiva da caça a estes ursos!
As soluções para o futuro do nosso Planeta, devem ser realistas e fazer parte de medidas de adaptação económica à lógica dos mercados globais, ao presente.

Air quality and ancillary benefits of climate change policies

This report analyses projected changes in European air quality up to 2030. It explores the possible benefits of climate policies on air quality and the costs of air pollution abatement. The results show that stringent EU climate change policies (aimed at limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels) could: 1) improve Europe's air quality; 2) cut premature deaths as a result of lower concentrations of ground level ozone and fine particulates (PM2.5); 3) save 10 billion EUR annually in air pollution control costs by 2030.

Outros estudos em português (por exemplo)

Ameaças que pairam sobre o mundo

Eis algumas ideias do livro que referi no meu último "post" :
1 - "O terrorismo não é a maior ameaça enfrentada pelo mundo."
2- "As alterações climáticas são o mais grave motivo de preocupação"

3- "A energia nuclear não nos ajuda a combater as alterações do clima ou a satisfazer as necessidades de energia de forma segura"

4- "A procura de recursos, especialmente petróleo, está a provocar conflitos e a gerar insegurança"

5- "Se queremos evitar um futuro altamente instável, precisamos de repensar todas as nossas políticas de segurança"

As ameaças do mundo actual

Um novo livro da colecção Sociedade Global da Editorial Presença: "As ameaças do mundo actual: alterações climáticas, escassez de recursos naturais, marginalização, militarização, terrorismo". Título original,"Beyond Terror"- "Será mesmo o terrorismo internacional a ameaça principal à segurança internacional?"
De facto todos estes tópicos estão, de algum modo, relacionados e exigem uma resposta global, que falta ainda encontrar, mas de que já existem alguns sinais nos movimentos sociais internacionais.
São apenas 120 páginas.

Colapso - como as sociedades escolhem pelo fracasso ou pela sobrevivência

"[....] the world's environmental problems will get resolved, in one way or another, within the lifetimes of the children and young adults alive today. The only question is whether they will become resolved in pleasant ways of our own choice, or in unpleasant ways not of our choice, such as warfare, genocide, starvation, disease epidemics, and collapses of societies. While all of those grim phenomena have been endemic to humanity throughout our history, their frequency increases with environmental degradation, population pressure, and the resulting poverty and political instability.
Examples of those unpleasant solutions to environmental and population problems abound in both the modern world and the ancient world"
in "Collapse" de Jared Diamond. Ler mais...

Alterações Climáticas no Conselho de Segurança da ONU

As Alterações Climáticas entraram no domínio das considerações da segurança internacional. Ver aqui.

Alguns números para reflexão e debate

CHINA AS A POWERFUL DRIVER OF WORLD TRENDS

• Explosive growth in emerging markets, particularly China, was a large factor behind the 5 percent increase in the gross world product in 2004, to $55 trillion. China’s economy alone grew by 9 percent. (p. 44)
• China increased its oil consumption by 11 percent in 2004, cementing its position as the world’s number two user (after the U.S.) at 6.6 million barrels per day. (p. 30)
• China is rapidly increasing its dependency on automobiles, with sales of cars and light commercial vehicles expected to reach 5 million units in 2005 and 7.3 million by 2007. (p. 56)
• China’s fleet of airplanes is due to skyrocket from 777 planes in 2003 to over 2,800 planes in 2023. (p. 60)
• China now ranks second (after the U.S.) in global carbon emissions, with a 14-percent share. Emissions in China are up more than 47 percent since 1990, and it accounted for half the global increase in 2003. (p. 40)
• Between 2001 and 2020, some 590 thousand people a year in China are projected to suffer premature deaths due to urban air pollution—nearly one third of the projected world total. (p. 95)
• Consumption of meat in China is expected to reach 73 kilograms per person on average a year, a 55 percent increase from 1993. (p. 24)
• Because of China’s mounting HIV/AIDS epidemic, the number of people living with HIV in East Asia jumped nearly 50 percent between 2002 and 2004, to 1.1 million. (p. 68)

Ver mais em "Vital Signs" 2005 e "Vital Signs" 2006-2007, uma publicação do World Watch Institute.

ÁGUA - Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento

Water Rights and Wrongs A young people's summary of the United Nations Human Development Report 2006
Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty, and the global water crisis

Water costs nothing for those with everything and everything for those with nothing ("A água nada custa para os que têm tudo, e tudo custa para os que nada têm")
The poor pay huge sums for small amounts of water. To get it, they walk great distances, wait hours, and compete with other equally desperate people for the precious resource.
Overcoming inequality is more than making sure that all people receive 20 litres of water everyday – those 20 litres must be clean and affordable – and free for the poor.

Warning to Humanity / Aviso à Humanidade

"Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about."

- «"World Scientists" Warning to Humanity» signed by more than 1600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries»